Retirement model · no account needed
When can I retire?
Enter six numbers. We run them through the same deterministic retirement engine Ask Linc uses on real accounts — a century of month-by-month market history, real inflation, real sequence risk — and show you what your plan would have done in every one of those retirements.
No chat box. No AI guessing at arithmetic. The same calculation, every time.
THE SAME ENGINE, WITH REAL INPUTS
Six numbers gets you a real calculation. Your accounts get you a real answer.
Ask Linc can replace those estimates with your actual accounts, spending, investments, debts and income — every holding, every fee, your real allocation, your real cash flow — and run this same model against them.
Start freeHOW THIS RETIREMENT CALCULATOR WORKS
Real history, not an average return.
Most retirement calculators grow your savings at one assumed rate and show you a smooth curve. Markets have never delivered one. This one replays what actually happened — month by month, from 1926 onward — and reports how your plan would have fared in each of those retirements.
- 01Enter six numbers
Your age, the age you want to retire, what you have invested, what you expect to spend each year, what you still add each year, and your Social Security estimate.
- 02Pick the closest asset mix
Conservative, balanced or growth. Sequence risk depends on what you hold, and a preset is an assumption — the page names it as one in every result.
- 03Read what history did to that plan
The share of overlapping historical retirements the portfolio outlasted, the spending the record was willing to fund, and the two levers that change the answer most.
What the model actually tests
- Sequence-of-returns risk
Every overlapping window the record can cover, beginning in 1926. A window has to have complete data for your whole plan, so a longer horizon reaches fewer start dates — each result names the first and last it actually tested.
- Real inflation
Withdrawals rise with the actual CPI of each tested period, not a flat assumption, and spending is held constant in real terms.
- Contributions before you retire
The years between now and your retirement date are simulated too, not compounded at an average rate.
- Social Security as indexed income
Your benefit begins at the claiming age you choose and offsets withdrawals from then on, with the gap years funded by the portfolio.
Market history comes from the Kenneth R. French Data Library (US equity, Treasury bills) and Robert J. Shiller (long-term government bonds, CPI). It is an informational model, not financial advice. See how we show the math.
Retirement calculator questions
How much do I need to retire?
There is no single number. It depends on what you spend, when you stop working, what other income arrives and when, and how markets behave in the first decade after you retire. This calculator works the question backwards: you give it your spending, investments, contributions and Social Security estimate, and it reports how many historical retirements that plan survived and what level of spending the same history was willing to fund.
Is the 4% rule still a safe withdrawal rate?
The 4% rule came from US historical data and a 30-year retirement, so it is a starting point rather than a guarantee. This model does not apply a fixed rate. It withdraws the spending you entered, adjusts it for inflation every year, and reports both the share of historical retirements the portfolio survived and the sustainable spending that history supports for the asset mix you picked.
What is sequence-of-returns risk?
Two retirements with the same average return can end very differently depending on when the bad years arrive. Withdrawals taken during a decline sell more shares and leave less invested to recover, so an early crash does lasting damage that a late one does not. That is why this calculator replays overlapping windows of real market history from 1926 onward instead of applying one average return. Every window has to cover your whole plan with complete data, so how far forward the start dates reach depends on your horizon, and the result names the first and last it tested.
Is this a Monte Carlo retirement simulation?
No. Monte Carlo draws random returns from an assumed distribution. This model replays actual month-by-month US market history across every overlapping retirement window the record is long enough to cover, so each result is a sequence markets really produced. Those windows share most of their history, which means they are not independent trials, and the page says so with the result.
Does the calculator include Social Security?
Yes. You enter the annual benefit from your ssa.gov statement and the age you plan to claim it. The model treats that benefit as inflation-indexed income starting at that age and uses it to reduce the withdrawal from your portfolio. Any years between retiring and claiming are funded by the portfolio alone.
What does this retirement calculator not model?
Taxes, account types, required minimum distributions and Roth conversions are not modeled. Neither are fund fees, health insurance before Medicare, one-off expenses, changes in spending through retirement, home equity, or pensions other than the income you enter. Your asset mix is one of three presets rather than your real holdings. Every result lists these gaps rather than hiding them.
Is it free, and do I need an account?
It is free and there is no sign-up. Nothing you type is saved; the six numbers are used for that one calculation. Connecting your real accounts to Ask Linc is what replaces the estimates with your actual holdings, spending, debts and income.