LSAMPLE ANSWERILLUSTRATIVE
The age-60 plan still works, but the cushion falls from about $200,000 to $45,000. The main risk is needing cash while investments are down. Keeping nine months of expenses outside the portfolio makes the plan much less sensitive to the timing of the drop.
Stress decline−15%
Cushion after stress$45,000
Cash target9 months
- The plan is more affected by selling during a downturn than by one year of higher inflation.
- Continuing contributions during the decline improves the recovery path.
- A larger cash reserve protects near-term choices without requiring a prediction about markets.
- Build the cash reserve before increasing investment risk.
- Keep automatic contributions running through the stress scenario.
- Revisit the retirement date only if the downturn overlaps with an income loss.